基于“综合赋权”模糊物元模型的机场运行安全评价

为了保证机场运行安全,防止事故的发生,依据模糊物元分析理论,结合机场运行安全评价指标体系,构建了基于综合赋权的机场系统模糊物元安全评价模型。在该模型中,通过层次分析法和熵值法主客观综合所确定的权重,为指标体系进行线性加权,实现综合赋权,从而将计算得到的综合权重用于模糊物元建模与评价。实例分析结果表明,该模型步骤简单,过程科学合理,并兼顾了主客观因素的影响,评价结果总体反映了机场的真实安全水平,也为机场安全的科学评价提供了新思路。     

Many‐server loss models with non‐poisson time‐varying arrivals

This article proposes an approximation for the blocking probability in a many‐server loss model with a non‐Poisson time‐varying arrival process and flexible staffing (number of servers) and shows that it can be used to set staffing levels to stabilize the time‐varying blocking probability at a target level. Because the blocking probabilities necessarily change dramatically after each staffing change, we randomize the time of each staffing change about the planned time. We apply simulation to show that (i) the blocking probabilities cannot be stabilized without some form of randomization, (ii) the new staffing algorithm with randomiation can stabilize blocking probabilities at target levels and (iii) the required staffing can be quite different when the Poisson assumption is dropped. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 177–202, 2017     

Thermal explosion of a reactive gas mixture at constant pressure for non-uniform and uniform temperature systems

In this study, the approximate and exact solutions for the stationary-state of the solids model with neglecting reactant consumption for both non-uniform and uniform temperature systems were applied on gas ignition under a constant pressure condition. The criticality conditions for a slab, an infinite cylinder, and a sphere are determined and discussed using dimensionless temperatures under constant ambient and surface temperatures for a non-uniform temperature system. Exact solution for a Semenov model with convection heat loss was also presented. The solution of the Semenov problem for constant volume or density as a solid and constant pressure were compared. The critical parameter δ is calculated and compared with those of Frank-Kamenetskii solution values. The validation of the calculated ignition temperatures with other exact solution and experimental results were offered. The relation between critical parameters form Semenov and F.K. models solution was introduced.     

大型水陆两栖飞机在反潜战中的运用

大型岸基固定翼反潜飞机虽然具有航程、航时、速度等多方面的优势,但由于其大部分的时间都花费在了巡逻飞行和盘旋等待上面,实际作战能力的发挥有限,且效费比也较低。若发展一型速度和岸基涡扇动力固定翼飞机相当,作战半径大、抗浪性能好、且具备水面持久驻留和低速巡航功能的大型水陆两栖反潜飞机,则可以较好的解决上述问题。文章分析了大型水陆两栖反潜飞机的特点和发展现状,并对其在应召反潜、检查反潜、巡逻反潜和持久威胁组网式反潜中的运用和优势进行了分析和探讨。研究发现,通过利用可在水面起降和长时间驻留停泊的特点,以大型水陆两栖为平台的反潜飞机不仅可以大大提高航空反潜作战的有效性,还能极大的降低运行成本,对增强海军中远海作战能力和体系化作战能力具有重要的意义。     

一种有机膨润土润滑脂的性能研究

以有机膨润土、HVI400矿物基础油、添加剂和极性助分散剂为原料,实验研究一种有机膨润土润滑脂,较详细地考察了极性助分散剂、添加剂及制备工艺（搅拌速度、搅拌时间、研磨次数）对膨润土润滑脂性能的影响.实验结果表明极性助分散剂采用丙酮时制备的膨润土润滑脂性能良好;液态添加剂比固体添加剂的效果好;制备工艺对膨润土润滑脂的性能有一定影响.采用15%有机膨润土稠化剂和85%HVI400矿物基础油,以2%-4%丙酮作极性助分散剂,添加0.5%抗氧剂、0.5%防锈剂、1%油性剂和4%极压抗磨剂,制备工艺为快速搅拌30 min,研制出一种性能良好的极压膨润土润滑脂,该润滑脂具有良好的高温性、胶体安定性、机械安定性、防锈性、抗水性和极压抗磨性.     

浅析消防业务信息系统的管理运维

消防业务信息系统日常运维任务是确保实时数据的可用性和完整性,信息能够得到及时处理应用,保障信息系统的正常运行及维护系统资源的安全.加强消防业务系统日常运维的管理标准,规范运维工作的方法,可以减少系统运维中不确定性因素,是提高消防业务工作质量和水平的重要保障.     

末端防御作战中火控雷达组网系统应用研究

火控雷达组网是应对未来末端防御作战挑战的有效途径。提出了基于指挥信息系统的火控雷达组网方式,并分析了该方式的优势。继而基于末端防御战斗部署一般要求和火控雷达组网系统对空侦察配系的特殊要求,经仿真计算得出和分析了火控雷达组网系统的典型对空侦察配系。最后详细论述了火控雷达组网系统的指挥控制要点。研究结果对于促进末端防御部队形成以信息系统为核心的体系作战能力具有重要意义。     

舰艇编队防空过程建模及分析

防空作战是大型水面舰艇编队的主要作战样式之一。运用PEPA(性能评价过程代数)方法对舰艇编队防空作战全过程进行有效建模,形式化描述了预警探测、情报传递、命令下达、防空拦截等作战主要过程。建立的PEPA模型具有层次化结构,考虑了要素间相互协作,体现了编队防空作战分布、并发的特点。通过对建立的PEPA模型进行性能指标选择和稳定状态分析,得到了不同因素对编队能力发挥的影响情况,获得了防空作战的基本要素组成,从而提供了一种解决舰艇编队问题的新方法。     

Military expenditure,economic growth and structural instability: a case study of South Africa

This paper contributes to the growing literature on the milex-growth nexus, by providing a case study of South Africa and considering the possibility of structural breaks by applying newly developed econometric methods. Using full sample bootstrap Granger non-causality tests, no Granger causal link is found between military expenditure and GDP for 1951–2010, but parameter instability tests show the estimated VARs to be unstable. Using a bootstrap rolling window estimation procedure, however, finds evidence of bidirectional Granger causality in various subsamples. This implies standard Granger non-causality tests, which neither account for structural breaks nor time variation may be invalid.     

反舰导弹大空域变轨的三维扩展比例导引律

为了使大空域变轨弹道的理论研究更符合反舰导弹的实际运动状态,建立了反舰导弹追踪虚拟目标的三维空间相对运动模型。同时,为了保证反舰导弹大空域变轨弹道的四段弹道平滑过渡,在导引律设计时同时考虑了脱靶量要求和末端落角要求。应用Lyapunov稳定性理论求解出满足要求的三维扩展比例导引律,对大空域变轨弹道的四段弹道设计了相应的过载控制指令,并进行了仿真研究。仿真结果表明:所提出的三维扩展比例导引律可以使反舰导弹顺利完成大空域飞行任务,而且保证了反舰导弹的所有性能指标均满足要求。